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The Inverse World Cup

Demonstration of the critical importance of soft power embodied in a ludicrous whimper (not a Tragically Hip song title, amazingly enough). What now? What next?

Dr. K brings the heat light:

[Europeans’] willingness to de-Americanize partly reflects recognition that reconciliation is hopeless: Trump is who he is, and a nation that elected him twice simply can’t be trusted.

However, Europe’s turn away from Trump also reflects plummeting perceptions of his power. At one time the world feared Trump although it never respected him. The silence that met his renewed demand for Greenland shows that the world no longer takes him seriously.

America remains an economic superpower with an enormous military budget. And the combination of a supine Republican Party, along with a Supreme Court that shamelessly greenlights Trump’s authoritarianism, has given this president more control over U.S. policy than any president has ever had, or ever should have. But while Trump is able to run roughshod over Americans, he can no longer bully the rest of the world. Thanks to Trump, the U.S. has seen its global influence plunge.

Implications of the word continue without relent. Even if even he was fit [he was not fit], hire an unprepared, incurious clown for a very complicated job and predictable results arrive only too soon. It should be noted how much he and his team make the job look so much more difficult than it already is – it’s quite the Inverse World Cup, where experienced professionals make an impossible sport look simple. So much of the grievous iniquity of ‘greatness’ had been laid bare that we would do well to lay off of it for a very long while.

Can a society beg to be humbled? The answer questions itself. Don’t be afraid of confronting faults and failings, they only wax the more dastardly. Humiliation of equality is as fake as his bluster and we’d best move on from it with some haste.

 

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American spiritual connection to scientific progress

I have likely shared versions of this anecdote, and so beg indulgence. During the economic crises of 2007-2009, GM (the carmaker) experienced trials and tribulations of their and others’ making that rattled the china in every state and quite beyond: frozen credit markets and a collapse in sales plus heavy legacy costs (debt) led to its near collapse. GM filed for Chapter 11 re-organization after a bail-out from Uncle Sam.

During this time, I met my friend the poet at our appointed hour and he re-counted a visit earlier that day to a local auto dealership where the salesman finished off his pitch on a new poet truck with the immortal words, “You can’t do anything more patriotic than buy a truck from the General.”

Of course, the poet was nothing if not patriotic.

Parallels to the far-reaching economic and spiritual destruction of that moment are afoot. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (such a sense of humor) has decimated international aid in a slashing that is already killing hundreds of thousands and now has the American scientific research  ecosystem in its crosshairs.

Climate scientists are being fired and marooned in the dark at a critical juncture.  Government climate research has resurfaced as Climate.us:

Climate.us today launched the full version of its new independent, nonprofit climate information website, creating a public-backed home for trusted climate science at a time when access to federal climate resources has become increasingly vulnerable to disruption.

This is a critical public information effort but step back and do the math on the science. It is untenable to reduce support for climate research to a bake sale. Neither can NIH or NSF survive on charity. The comprehensive network that trains the next generations, tests, trials, safeguards, and incentivizes innovation across the globe is a giant sandbox. This is not a miscalculation, as no calculating occurred. Killing USAID was a crime; this is a mistake. The destruction is not about any single scientific project – this is about killing the American project. Bad for the economy, bad for soft power and national security, a salting of the global dominance for which we stand.

Stand Up For Science.

Like GM but much more so, there is something quintessentially American about scientific progress. We might not even be sure why, and as jingoistic as the words are in sequence, it is just simple, spiritual pride. Connection, not to owning breakthroughs but fostering them, sharing them, being the spring that feeds and from which they emerge.

This is not reform, this is destruction, plain and simple. Undermining expertise by aligning it with political considerations is the very essence of fraud which, if you haven’t noticed, are variations on an old theme.

 

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Presume to consume

Given the ‘outcomes’ of various recent fiascos, the knock-on effects of re-centering global power point to less nationalism and more skepticism about tentative efforts to affect an energy transition.

The transition required is not one of energy but of consumption:

The energy transition is a slogan but no scientific concept. It derives its legitimacy from a false representation of history. Industrial revolutions are certainly not energy transitions, they are a massive expansion of all kinds of raw materials and energy sources.

Moreover, the word energy transition has its main origins in political debates in the 1970s following the oil crisis. But in these, it was not about the environment or climate, but only about energy autonomy or independence from other countries.

Scientifically, it is a scandal to then apply this concept to the much more complex climate problem. So when we seek solutions to the climate crisis and want to reduce CO2 emissions, it is better not to talk about a transition. It is better to look at the development of raw materials in absolute terms and to understand their intertwinedness. This will also restrain us from overestimating the importance of technology and innovation .

Informative thinking from historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. In a technologically-obsessed culture, of course we focus on tech solutions. But there is no end-run around our consumptive habits and pre-supposing how we maintain those and reduce anything is simply scientism vs science. Unpacking useful vs. useless CO2 emissions, for example, opens a breach in the dimensional barrier between wishful thinking and effective action. Absolute reductions in material and energy use are inevitable; better that we unite around joys and common interests than shared crises. Consumption junction, what’s your function?

Difficult political messaging inquiries welcome.

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Fires, how do they cease?

There’s a netherworld aspect to living in the box that won’t allow for observation. The nuclear decay device – in this case, purported enriched uranium, actual nuclear weapons-making stuffs – occupies both the need and raisin debt at the center of the conflict. Learn from one thing to understand another, not just another party trick but try it at home. Impress your friends:

On Thursday the White House released long-anticipated draft regulations that, if enacted, would give political appointees the final word on federal research grants and other funding across government agencies.

Scheduled to be officially published in the Federal Register on Friday, the 412-page proposal on federal spending rules would centralize Office of Management and Budget (OMB) control over releases of government funds, including for scientific research grants.

The new rules would mandate political appointees at scientific agencies to sign off on all research awards for compliance with presidential priorities, including those on race and gender.

And at scientific agencies, the proposal states that “senior appointees must conduct these reviews and apply specific principles when evaluating proposals,” a departure from past practice whereby apolitical expert review committees approved research grants.

Many people are saying a clown moved into a palace doesn’t become a king – the palace becomes a circus. This lack of pretense for caring to understand, readily transferable to all policies foreign and domestic, constitutes an undoing and should be acknowledged as such in the strongest terms available. Put people in charge who don’t know what they are doing are defiant in pushing back clocks to yesteryears and suddenly we are all looking around for someone to push back on the madness, to explain in gentler terms that will shake the comfortable from their stupor. The unwelcome news: You are the someone.

The welcome news: you’re more ready than you think. The groundhog day coup d’etat where we wait for new explanations of what’s happening from people media who don’t want one did not emerge from a rift in time. Its origins are a dereliction of responsibility, an allergy to action, against uncomfortable words and calling out ignorance, racism, and misogyny. The Strait won’t open because the vandals handed-over the handle.

Fire with fire, friends. Unless or until then, it’s cognitive tests all the way down.

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Upside down capitalism

Or right-side up, as the case may be.

Are there herds of socially conscious investors, or be these merely unicorns –  a mythical breed, product of minds who wish to conjure a next, more hospitable capitalism, yet unseen in the wild?

Given the inherent cynicism of speaking these players into existence if they do not exist, let’s posit that they do. Pension funds, family foundations, high-wealth individuals who have re-gained sight or never lost heart. It would be just as cynical to discount these.

One thing the so-called ‘disruptors’ do not want or take any shine to, is in fact disruption. That is, positive outcomes from new products to stock price to IPO feeding frenzies are all predicated on business as usual. However, re-ordering the calculus toward a triple bottom-line – people, planet, profit – will only occur with a fight. Several, many, multiple that will enter the courts but not end there.

Public opinion can not only be swayed, it cries out for persuasion. So this star is not fixed, despite the claims of those who deny priority to human rights, who cannot countenance paths to a renewable energy future that is already here, who beg patience for big data schemes but preach urgency for dismantling social safety nets that protect and educate.

The unicorns need to speak out. They need to speak out about how capitalism ends by not ending, not by changing but by being changed.

Whether it is capital allocation or your HVAC, from time to time broken systems must be replaced. Socialize yourself to country-ownership – alternately be prepared to live in someone else’s country. The someone being an oligarchy. This is how the oligs imagine the scenario.

Also: get rested up for the fight.

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Energy diversification

photo of flag painted on tin

Yours, mine, ours.

I recently finished reading a book about being trapped in the same day over and over again, which presented the concept of a rift in time in the context of complex minutiae and how we factor small events into larger ones. Even our best sense of recall leaves out quite a bit. The actual route between kitchen and bath, for example; or what happens on the other side of the switch that allows our betting apps to re-charge.

The low and slow approach to movement or reading by candlelight dispenses a luster all its own. We are free to partake, understand its nourishing powers, and to ignore these in lieu of better light and quicker options, to relegate them to novels and the pity of grateful authors.

Legs may tire and the candle burns down, marking progressive time very distinctly in ways that are only typically confusing. And these methods share something else: a hovering sense of the immediate. We declaim poetry in the same manner that we accept a holiday, earned or not, observant of its nature or not. That is, gladly. Attuned to bare arms and all they may evoke, how they interrupt our struggle for productivity with suggestion. Seen in this light, the need to produce, develop, accrue is as unnatural as time travel. The many dumb reasons behind events of note and other current happenings dumb us down, so be wary. Be suspect, call out. Use fancy old words if you so choose. Declaim.

Baudelaire was unsparing and left so much popcorn on the forest floor it can be hard to discern the trail. But discern we must. Find your way. Write your music and play it.

Happy Holiday.

Image: American Flag by R. A. Miller

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Data States

Just returned from a sojourn to Silicon Valley where you can be party to many conversations about or tangential to Artificial Everything, or you can just party. Both of these I will mark as complete.

The biggest flaw thus far in the advent of AE is not chat-bot psychosis, though sufferers should seek medical attention (this is not investment advice), but local resistance to data center construction. Although, it seems that Utah did not receive the memo:

A plan to create one of the world’s largest datacenters, a gargantuan project spanning an area more than twice the size of Manhattan, has provoked a furious public backlash in Utah amid concerns over its vast energy use and impact upon the state’s stressed water supplies.

The Stratos artificial intelligence datacenter footprint will cover more than 40,000 acres (62 sq miles) over three sites in Box Elder county in north-western Utah. The facility will require about 9GW of power, which is more than the entire state of Utah currently consumes, and suck up a significant amount of water in an area that has been hit by severe drought in recent years.

Last week, the project was approved by the county’s commissioners, despite thousands of objections lodged by Utah residents. Environmentalists have warned that Stratos could imperil the Great Salt Lake ecosystem, including a critical migratory bird habitat, which is already under severe stress.

Pretty sure that on my way out to SV, we flew over this area or nearish-by. I can attest that from my window seat (not engineering advice) there is sufficient spatial accommodation for this project. But as the fine people of the area point out with their signs and yelling, there does not seem to be sufficient anything else.

Sacrificing water and energy that a state does not have at a scale that it does, will not a data center make. You can siphon a watershed for ‘other purposes’ but not without hastening a collapse of the ecosystem and all that it temporarily supports.

The numbers of people who pushed back on this plan to no avail is at least worth noting.

Image: Cumberland Island, for context of scale, about the same size as Manhattan but with 6 million less people.

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Knife Fighting Advice

Two people find each other in a bar, have words, and are told to take it outside. One has a knife, the other does not.

Political Advice

The need to find a name for everything, especially in the midst of context collapse – government that relies on its own impunity, media beholden to access and corrupted beyond its ability to notice – finds its gloomy audience. The cynicism of artificial everything takes the degradation of beauty as license for further spoils. People who profess faith in a universe governed by a monarchy do not care about the state of democracy. Capitalist buzzards scavenge the carrion so much begins to resemble.

Slow down.

The rush constitutes a critical element in the systemic failures, which while calculated and tangible only accelerate via failures of imagination. The first thing to go, assumed to be light, harmless, perhaps fun but inessential and so left unguarded while the currencies get blast-proof doors and laser alarm matrices. But crushing the capacity for imagination has always been priority. Note the uncomfortable complicity in putting away childish things at our peril.

Consider how little attention has been paid. How much agency remains? Where to start with such a disfigured capacity to imagine? No wonder. Little wonder. Disordered priorities. Go back. Name a recent wonder. A glimpse, a moment handed over to wonder. Everything is there.

The subconscious renders, speaks beyond language, as much older than language, flickers with light, premises lightness, joy, love.

Own the lapses, welcome fears. Correct them. Re-order indicates a new, different hierarchy that understands exact necessity. Smells of earth and wild garden fragrance always near the top.

Oh, and always bring a knife just in case.

Image: Fifth Avenue skyscraper blocking the view of the Empire State Building.

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Building the bridge

Ponte Vecchio Sunset, Florence, Italy

The metaphor that is also a method of crossing a divide, transporting the physical from one state to the next. Once side to the next – across the Arno, over the Hudson, spanning the Seine, connecting Brooklyn to Manhattan.

How many do you recall by name? Some for their beauty, others merely wondrous, the metaphor as well as the physical transference also apply to technology. The way we move improves, the power sources change, because they are forced to; we choose the worst methods first, to soothe our primitive ease, pressure and ideas allow conveyance to get better. Then a Roebling appears. Several Roeblings, a Strauss, and maybe an Eiffel.*

Lithium-ion batteries are the default chemistry used in EVs, personal devices, and even stationary storage systems on the grid today. But in a tough environment in some markets like the US, there’s a growing interest in cheaper alternatives. Automakers right now largely care just about batteries’ cost, regardless of performance improvements, says Kara Rodby, a technical principal at Volta Energy Technologies, a venture capital firm that focuses on energy storage technology.

Sodium-ion cells have long been held up as a potentially less expensive alternative to lithium. The batteries are limited in their energy density, so they deliver a shorter range than lithium-ion. But sodium is also more abundant, so they could be cheaper.

Lithium-ion batteries have crowded out competitors like sodium-ion, but even these represent only the tip of the spear of the battery iceberg. There are a few others, a list that will expand and contract as ultimately the tech chases simpler as price, ease, waste, and availability dictate a new race to the other side.

New battery chemistry already feeds a breeding ground for competitors. The bridge builders are all over, chasing opportunity like the oilmen and the 49ers before them. No one will be accused of excessive optimism at the current moment. However, the fossil fuel-powered economy is living up to its name – a wonder of reverse marketing – done and dusted, as we scatter ourselves across the several states of realizing it. Nothing about it is salvageable. I trust that’s not our calling card.

It’s the meanwhile that deserves attention. The bridge can’t get built while you’re standing on it – and then you notice you’re suspended out over thin air, just as we’ve always been.

* I’m endeared of the story, perhaps apocryphal, that as the Tour rose of Paris in the late 1880s, the artists of the time considered it as sign marking the end of civilization, perhaps the world.

 

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Not complicated

Complexity abounds. Our current politics, however, are dumbed down for their intended audience of us. Even then, we don’t seem to get the clarity staring us in the face: the country is being spoken for and to by a demented lunatic. There is no plan, only impulse, neediness, and corruption. We don’t want to reckon with this, but the sooner we realize that we must, that we don’t know how it ends, the sooner begins the work – and work it will surely be.

All signs point in the same direction. Despite all of the conversational satire to which we have grown accustomed, the hubris of a powerful society has done its work.

But here’s your bedtime story: the amount of lost oil supply is already equal to the reduction in oil consumption during the covid pandemic.

The world has lost over $50 billion ​worth of crude oil that has not been produced since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago and ‌the . aftershock of the crisis will be felt for months and even years to come, according to analysts and Reuters calculations.

Since the crisis began at the end of February, more than 500 million ​barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, according to Kpler data – the ⁠largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
Put differently, 500 million barrels of oil lost to the market is equivalent to:
  • Curtailing aviation demand ​globally for 10 weeks; no road travel by any vehicle globally for 11 days; or no oil for the global economy for five days, ​said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
  • Nearly a month of oil demand in the United States, or more than a month of oil for all of Europe, according to Reuters estimates.
  • Roughly six years of fuel consumption for the U.S. military, based on annual usage of about 80 million barrels from fiscal ​year 2021.

The Reuters piece concludes with a short section under the subhead FULL RESTORATION COULD TAKE YEARS.

About this restoration… what if we don’t go back – and choose to move forward instead? It’s an outrageous proposition but, knowing now full well what do, having destroyed what we have – facilities, lives, and relationships, alliances – the accidental test case for moving beyond oil is no longer a test.

The seemingly scariest part of this (scary to the world’s most frightened populace of rich and coddled) is already underway for seemingly unrelated reasons [not at all unrelated]. Auditions are over. Thank you all for coming. We’ve found our man.

Image: Nemesis by Albrecht Dürer (1501-1502); Albrecht Dürer, via Wikimedia Commons