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The Inverse World Cup

Demonstration of the critical importance of soft power embodied in a ludicrous whimper (not a Tragically Hip song title, amazingly enough). What now? What next?

Dr. K brings the heat light:

[Europeans’] willingness to de-Americanize partly reflects recognition that reconciliation is hopeless: Trump is who he is, and a nation that elected him twice simply can’t be trusted.

However, Europe’s turn away from Trump also reflects plummeting perceptions of his power. At one time the world feared Trump although it never respected him. The silence that met his renewed demand for Greenland shows that the world no longer takes him seriously.

America remains an economic superpower with an enormous military budget. And the combination of a supine Republican Party, along with a Supreme Court that shamelessly greenlights Trump’s authoritarianism, has given this president more control over U.S. policy than any president has ever had, or ever should have. But while Trump is able to run roughshod over Americans, he can no longer bully the rest of the world. Thanks to Trump, the U.S. has seen its global influence plunge.

Implications of the word continue without relent. Even if even he was fit [he was not fit], hire an unprepared, incurious clown for a very complicated job and predictable results arrive only too soon. It should be noted how much he and his team make the job look so much more difficult than it already is – it’s quite the Inverse World Cup, where experienced professionals make an impossible sport look simple. So much of the grievous iniquity of ‘greatness’ had been laid bare that we would do well to lay off of it for a very long while.

Can a society beg to be humbled? The answer questions itself. Don’t be afraid of confronting faults and failings, they only wax the more dastardly. Humiliation of equality is as fake as his bluster and we’d best move on from it with some haste.

 

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American spiritual connection to scientific progress

I have likely shared versions of this anecdote, and so beg indulgence. During the economic crises of 2007-2009, GM (the carmaker) experienced trials and tribulations of their and others’ making that rattled the china in every state and quite beyond: frozen credit markets and a collapse in sales plus heavy legacy costs (debt) led to its near collapse. GM filed for Chapter 11 re-organization after a bail-out from Uncle Sam.

During this time, I met my friend the poet at our appointed hour and he re-counted a visit earlier that day to a local auto dealership where the salesman finished off his pitch on a new poet truck with the immortal words, “You can’t do anything more patriotic than buy a truck from the General.”

Of course, the poet was nothing if not patriotic.

Parallels to the far-reaching economic and spiritual destruction of that moment are afoot. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (such a sense of humor) has decimated international aid in a slashing that is already killing hundreds of thousands and now has the American scientific research  ecosystem in its crosshairs.

Climate scientists are being fired and marooned in the dark at a critical juncture.  Government climate research has resurfaced as Climate.us:

Climate.us today launched the full version of its new independent, nonprofit climate information website, creating a public-backed home for trusted climate science at a time when access to federal climate resources has become increasingly vulnerable to disruption.

This is a critical public information effort but step back and do the math on the science. It is untenable to reduce support for climate research to a bake sale. Neither can NIH or NSF survive on charity. The comprehensive network that trains the next generations, tests, trials, safeguards, and incentivizes innovation across the globe is a giant sandbox. This is not a miscalculation, as no calculating occurred. Killing USAID was a crime; this is a mistake. The destruction is not about any single scientific project – this is about killing the American project. Bad for the economy, bad for soft power and national security, a salting of the global dominance for which we stand.

Stand Up For Science.

Like GM but much more so, there is something quintessentially American about scientific progress. We might not even be sure why, and as jingoistic as the words are in sequence, it is just simple, spiritual pride. Connection, not to owning breakthroughs but fostering them, sharing them, being the spring that feeds and from which they emerge.

This is not reform, this is destruction, plain and simple. Undermining expertise by aligning it with political considerations is the very essence of fraud which, if you haven’t noticed, are variations on an old theme.

 

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Presume to consume

Given the ‘outcomes’ of various recent fiascos, the knock-on effects of re-centering global power point to less nationalism and more skepticism about tentative efforts to affect an energy transition.

The transition required is not one of energy but of consumption:

The energy transition is a slogan but no scientific concept. It derives its legitimacy from a false representation of history. Industrial revolutions are certainly not energy transitions, they are a massive expansion of all kinds of raw materials and energy sources.

Moreover, the word energy transition has its main origins in political debates in the 1970s following the oil crisis. But in these, it was not about the environment or climate, but only about energy autonomy or independence from other countries.

Scientifically, it is a scandal to then apply this concept to the much more complex climate problem. So when we seek solutions to the climate crisis and want to reduce CO2 emissions, it is better not to talk about a transition. It is better to look at the development of raw materials in absolute terms and to understand their intertwinedness. This will also restrain us from overestimating the importance of technology and innovation .

Informative thinking from historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. In a technologically-obsessed culture, of course we focus on tech solutions. But there is no end-run around our consumptive habits and pre-supposing how we maintain those and reduce anything is simply scientism vs science. Unpacking useful vs. useless CO2 emissions, for example, opens a breach in the dimensional barrier between wishful thinking and effective action. Absolute reductions in material and energy use are inevitable; better that we unite around joys and common interests than shared crises. Consumption junction, what’s your function?

Difficult political messaging inquiries welcome.

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Fires, how do they cease?

There’s a netherworld aspect to living in the box that won’t allow for observation. The nuclear decay device – in this case, purported enriched uranium, actual nuclear weapons-making stuffs – occupies both the need and raisin debt at the center of the conflict. Learn from one thing to understand another, not just another party trick but try it at home. Impress your friends:

On Thursday the White House released long-anticipated draft regulations that, if enacted, would give political appointees the final word on federal research grants and other funding across government agencies.

Scheduled to be officially published in the Federal Register on Friday, the 412-page proposal on federal spending rules would centralize Office of Management and Budget (OMB) control over releases of government funds, including for scientific research grants.

The new rules would mandate political appointees at scientific agencies to sign off on all research awards for compliance with presidential priorities, including those on race and gender.

And at scientific agencies, the proposal states that “senior appointees must conduct these reviews and apply specific principles when evaluating proposals,” a departure from past practice whereby apolitical expert review committees approved research grants.

Many people are saying a clown moved into a palace doesn’t become a king – the palace becomes a circus. This lack of pretense for caring to understand, readily transferable to all policies foreign and domestic, constitutes an undoing and should be acknowledged as such in the strongest terms available. Put people in charge who don’t know what they are doing are defiant in pushing back clocks to yesteryears and suddenly we are all looking around for someone to push back on the madness, to explain in gentler terms that will shake the comfortable from their stupor. The unwelcome news: You are the someone.

The welcome news: you’re more ready than you think. The groundhog day coup d’etat where we wait for new explanations of what’s happening from people media who don’t want one did not emerge from a rift in time. Its origins are a dereliction of responsibility, an allergy to action, against uncomfortable words and calling out ignorance, racism, and misogyny. The Strait won’t open because the vandals handed-over the handle.

Fire with fire, friends. Unless or until then, it’s cognitive tests all the way down.

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Data States

Just returned from a sojourn to Silicon Valley where you can be party to many conversations about or tangential to Artificial Everything, or you can just party. Both of these I will mark as complete.

The biggest flaw thus far in the advent of AE is not chat-bot psychosis, though sufferers should seek medical attention (this is not investment advice), but local resistance to data center construction. Although, it seems that Utah did not receive the memo:

A plan to create one of the world’s largest datacenters, a gargantuan project spanning an area more than twice the size of Manhattan, has provoked a furious public backlash in Utah amid concerns over its vast energy use and impact upon the state’s stressed water supplies.

The Stratos artificial intelligence datacenter footprint will cover more than 40,000 acres (62 sq miles) over three sites in Box Elder county in north-western Utah. The facility will require about 9GW of power, which is more than the entire state of Utah currently consumes, and suck up a significant amount of water in an area that has been hit by severe drought in recent years.

Last week, the project was approved by the county’s commissioners, despite thousands of objections lodged by Utah residents. Environmentalists have warned that Stratos could imperil the Great Salt Lake ecosystem, including a critical migratory bird habitat, which is already under severe stress.

Pretty sure that on my way out to SV, we flew over this area or nearish-by. I can attest that from my window seat (not engineering advice) there is sufficient spatial accommodation for this project. But as the fine people of the area point out with their signs and yelling, there does not seem to be sufficient anything else.

Sacrificing water and energy that a state does not have at a scale that it does, will not a data center make. You can siphon a watershed for ‘other purposes’ but not without hastening a collapse of the ecosystem and all that it temporarily supports.

The numbers of people who pushed back on this plan to no avail is at least worth noting.

Image: Cumberland Island, for context of scale, about the same size as Manhattan but with 6 million less people.

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Building the bridge

Ponte Vecchio Sunset, Florence, Italy

The metaphor that is also a method of crossing a divide, transporting the physical from one state to the next. Once side to the next – across the Arno, over the Hudson, spanning the Seine, connecting Brooklyn to Manhattan.

How many do you recall by name? Some for their beauty, others merely wondrous, the metaphor as well as the physical transference also apply to technology. The way we move improves, the power sources change, because they are forced to; we choose the worst methods first, to soothe our primitive ease, pressure and ideas allow conveyance to get better. Then a Roebling appears. Several Roeblings, a Strauss, and maybe an Eiffel.*

Lithium-ion batteries are the default chemistry used in EVs, personal devices, and even stationary storage systems on the grid today. But in a tough environment in some markets like the US, there’s a growing interest in cheaper alternatives. Automakers right now largely care just about batteries’ cost, regardless of performance improvements, says Kara Rodby, a technical principal at Volta Energy Technologies, a venture capital firm that focuses on energy storage technology.

Sodium-ion cells have long been held up as a potentially less expensive alternative to lithium. The batteries are limited in their energy density, so they deliver a shorter range than lithium-ion. But sodium is also more abundant, so they could be cheaper.

Lithium-ion batteries have crowded out competitors like sodium-ion, but even these represent only the tip of the spear of the battery iceberg. There are a few others, a list that will expand and contract as ultimately the tech chases simpler as price, ease, waste, and availability dictate a new race to the other side.

New battery chemistry already feeds a breeding ground for competitors. The bridge builders are all over, chasing opportunity like the oilmen and the 49ers before them. No one will be accused of excessive optimism at the current moment. However, the fossil fuel-powered economy is living up to its name – a wonder of reverse marketing – done and dusted, as we scatter ourselves across the several states of realizing it. Nothing about it is salvageable. I trust that’s not our calling card.

It’s the meanwhile that deserves attention. The bridge can’t get built while you’re standing on it – and then you notice you’re suspended out over thin air, just as we’ve always been.

* I’m endeared of the story, perhaps apocryphal, that as the Tour rose of Paris in the late 1880s, the artists of the time considered it as sign marking the end of civilization, perhaps the world.

 

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Not complicated

Complexity abounds. Our current politics, however, are dumbed down for their intended audience of us. Even then, we don’t seem to get the clarity staring us in the face: the country is being spoken for and to by a demented lunatic. There is no plan, only impulse, neediness, and corruption. We don’t want to reckon with this, but the sooner we realize that we must, that we don’t know how it ends, the sooner begins the work – and work it will surely be.

All signs point in the same direction. Despite all of the conversational satire to which we have grown accustomed, the hubris of a powerful society has done its work.

But here’s your bedtime story: the amount of lost oil supply is already equal to the reduction in oil consumption during the covid pandemic.

The world has lost over $50 billion ​worth of crude oil that has not been produced since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago and ‌the . aftershock of the crisis will be felt for months and even years to come, according to analysts and Reuters calculations.

Since the crisis began at the end of February, more than 500 million ​barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, according to Kpler data – the ⁠largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
Put differently, 500 million barrels of oil lost to the market is equivalent to:
  • Curtailing aviation demand ​globally for 10 weeks; no road travel by any vehicle globally for 11 days; or no oil for the global economy for five days, ​said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
  • Nearly a month of oil demand in the United States, or more than a month of oil for all of Europe, according to Reuters estimates.
  • Roughly six years of fuel consumption for the U.S. military, based on annual usage of about 80 million barrels from fiscal ​year 2021.

The Reuters piece concludes with a short section under the subhead FULL RESTORATION COULD TAKE YEARS.

About this restoration… what if we don’t go back – and choose to move forward instead? It’s an outrageous proposition but, knowing now full well what do, having destroyed what we have – facilities, lives, and relationships, alliances – the accidental test case for moving beyond oil is no longer a test.

The seemingly scariest part of this (scary to the world’s most frightened populace of rich and coddled) is already underway for seemingly unrelated reasons [not at all unrelated]. Auditions are over. Thank you all for coming. We’ve found our man.

Image: Nemesis by Albrecht Dürer (1501-1502); Albrecht Dürer, via Wikimedia Commons

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Of straits and traps

A mental ill patient in a straight jacket and strapped into a chair. Photograph after a wood engraving by E. Tritschler, 1908.

What if war isn’t viable? And rather than being merely hopeful or any nod to a peacenik Shangri-La at last, what would remain in the balance – TBD comme on dit – is somehow assuring that the entire globe doesn’t become a failed state. That we don’t default to a Hobbesian existence on a planetary scale – yes, very much including our bumblionaires who have so sagely guided marked the territory to this place. But as [this] war increasingly results in an escalation trap, can we must become dissuaded of ts benefits:

Once started, a major regional war with Iran was always likely to be something of a ‘trap,’ – not in the sense of an ambush laid by Iran – but in the sense of a situation that, once entered, cannot be easily left or reversed.

The trap, of course, is the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Persian Gulf. The issue is that an enormous proportion of the world’s shipping, particularly energy (oil, liquid natural gas) and fertilizer components (urea) passes through this body of water. The Gulf is narrow along its whole length, extremely narrow in the Strait and bordered by Iran on its northern shore along its entire length. Iran can thus threaten the whole thing and can do so with cheap, easy to conceal, easy to manufacture systems.

…

So once the strait was closed, the United States could not leave until it was reopened, or at least there was some prospect of doing so.

The result is a fairly classic escalation trap: once the conflict starts, it is extremely costlyfor either side to ever back down, which ensures that the conflict continues long past it being in the interests of either party. Every day this war goes on make both the United States and Iran weaker, poorer and less secure but it is very hard for either side to back down because there are huge costs connected to being the party that backs down. So both sides ‘escalate to de-escalate’ (this phrase is generally as foolish as it sounds), intensifying the conflict in an effort to hit hard enough to force the other guy to blink first. But since neither party can back down unilaterally and survive politically, there’s practically no amount of pain that can force them to do so.

I’ve mentioned multiple times how the brakes on the carbon-based economy have been located – No! Not that way! – and the screeching we hear is actually the metal backing plate contacting the metal rotor, recommending immediate inspection and repair.

A dumb, so very dumb war presents this metaphor for appraisal.

Image via Wellcome Collection..

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Preventive Incantation

It doesn’t matter how one feels* about AI as a technological problem. It is much more of a financial problem, a threat similar to others that preceded it but special in its own special way. Purveyors already know the limits of the technology but dangle the potential profits as unlimited.

Because all the convenient confusion can be difficult to parse, a cultural interpretation of the crisis requires urgent attention. And thanks to Short Attention Span Theater – the single, unwavering truism threading society together – it needs to be brief and concise. Enter The Great Crash, 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith into evidence:

…there is deep faith in the power of incantation. When the market fell many Wall Street citizens immediately sensed the real danger, which was that income and employment – prosperity in general – would be adversely affected. This had to be prevented. Preventive incantation required that as many important people as possible repeat as firmly as they could that it wouldn’t happen.  This they did. They explained how the stock market was merely the froth and that the real substance of economic life rested in production , employment, and spending, all of which would remain unaffected. No one knew for sure this was so. As an instrument of economic policy, incantation does not permit of minor doubts or scruples.

To the mighty extent that AI hype runs riot, our savvy age turns the power of incantation into cynicism verging on a new art form. Machine learning is so deeply ingrained into every sector that it simply must work and cannot fail, to coin a phrase. It must be powerful if important people are warning that it might take over.

Meanwhile, circularity: Tech giants investing in each other’s AI products and projects, driving valuation and demand for power, water, chips, and data centers, and inflating the perception of market consensus. We love the miasma of mortgage-backed securities in the morning.

Circularity > singularity.

Image: Screenshot from Bloomberg March 20, 2026

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War o’clock

reverse osmosis. Desalination. The pressure water molecules seep through the semi-permeable membrane.

Stumbled is the word you’re looking for.

Don’t be shy about calling the administration incompetent, early and often. In point of barely disputed facts, calling them inept is being generous. Again, I remain in awe of just how much Trump is determined to cut carbon emissions. Inspiring if it wasn’t so deadly stupid. Rather than an entertainment show, government is boring and highly complex. Hire accordingly.

Meanwhile and on the subject of incompetence, massive industrial build out coupled with an extended drought has ‘leaders’ on the Texas coast hoping for a hurricane:

The imminent depletion of water supplies in Corpus Christi threatens to cut off the flow of jet fuel to Texas airports and other oil exports from one of the nation’s largest petroleum ports, triggering potential shockwaves through energy markets in Texas and beyond.

Without significant rainfall, Corpus Christi is headed for a “water emergency” within months and total depletion of the system next year, according to the city’s website. “The impacts are going to be felt tremendously through the state, if not internationally,” said Sean Strawbridge, former CEO of the Port of Corpus Christi Authority, the nation’s top port for crude oil exports, in a 40-minute interview Thursday. “This should be no surprise to anybody. We were talking about this over a decade ago.”

If using municipal water supplies for refineries and industry sounds familiar, it should. Take note, data and detention center targets. Everyone will get pulled is already engaged in these conflicts, some may not realize it yet. We definitely need more Texas Tribunes. What happened to newspapers, anyway?

Image: diagram for how desalination process. Not pictured – waste produced.